The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial pathway for global oil shipments. If Iran tries to close it, the move could end up hurting Iran itself.

 TEHRAN, JUNE 23 — The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has sparked fears that Iran might try to block the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but crucial waterway through which a huge amount of the world’s oil passes every day. This concern has grown after the U.S. military struck three Iranian sites over the weekend.

The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran and Oman. Iran has a large military presence in the area, including fast attack boats, sea mines, and missiles that could be used to block the strait. Iran’s main naval base is at Bandar Abbas, and it could also fire missiles from its long coastline—similar to how its allies in Yemen (the Houthis) have been targeting ships in the Red Sea.

In 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil per day—roughly 20% of global consumption—went through this route, mostly heading to Asian countries like China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Because there aren’t enough pipelines to transport this oil over land, blocking the strait would create a major global supply problem.

Why the Strait Matters

The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Although it’s only 33 km wide at its narrowest point, it’s deep and wide enough for the world’s biggest oil tankers. Oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Iran passes through here. Liquefied natural gas from Qatar also goes this way. Unlike other oil routes, there are no easy detours if the strait is blocked.

What Happens if Iran Blocks It

If Iran did block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could temporarily soar to $120–$130 per barrel. This would push up inflation around the world. However, most experts believe the spike wouldn’t last long.

Asia would feel the impact the most—84% of the oil that travels through the strait goes there. For example, China gets almost half its imported oil from this route. But China has large oil reserves, enough for about 2.5 months.

The U.S. would see higher oil prices too, but it wouldn't lose much supply directly. In 2024, only about 7% of its oil imports came through the strait—its lowest level in nearly 40 years.

Why Iran Probably Won’t Close It

Closing the strait would hurt Iran more than help it. It would block Iran’s own oil exports. Iran is building a new export terminal at Jask, just outside the strait, but it’s not ready yet and can’t handle large volumes.

It would also harm China, Iran’s biggest customer and trade partner, and upset nearby Arab countries who are cautiously supportive of Iran right now. Plus, it would involve blocking Omani waters—potentially angering Oman, which has helped mediate between the U.S. and Iran in the past.

The U.S. Would Likely Respond

If Iran tried to block the strait, the U.S. Navy would probably step in quickly to reopen it—just as it did in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war. Experts believe that if it came to that, Iran’s navy would be overwhelmed in hours or days. Any military response by the U.S. would likely have quiet support from Europe and possibly even China.

In short, while closing the Strait of Hormuz could cause a global oil shock, Iran would likely suffer just as much—if not more—making it a risky move.